| Dimension | Path 1 Derek-Led |
Path 2 Jason-Led |
Path 3 Sprint |
Path 4 Expert Q2 |
Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed to First $ | 7 days | 7 days | 14-21 days | 84-133 days | Path 1 & 2 🏆 |
| Leverage Score | 9/10 | 8/10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | Path 1 🏆 |
| Execution Risk | 4/10 risk | 3/10 risk | 5/10 risk | 7/10 risk | Path 2 🏆 |
| Autonomy | 7/10 | 9/10 | 9/10 | 3/10 | Path 2 & 3 🏆 |
| Week 1 Revenue | $3-5K | $3-5K | $0 | $0 | Path 1 & 2 🏆 |
| Month 1 Revenue | $10-15K | $10-15K | $5-15K | $0 | Path 1 & 2 🏆 |
| Q1 Revenue (Total) | $42-70K | $42-70K | $10-28K | $0 | Path 1 & 2 🏆 |
| Strategic Value | 9/10 | 8/10 | 8/10 | 10/10 | Path 4 🏆 |
| TOTAL SCORE | 29/40 | 29/40 | 28/40 | 20/40 | Path 1 & 2 🏆 |
Why This Wins: Highest leverage (Derek's sales + network + Jason's content), fastest to revenue, creates JV pipeline, proves monetization model.
Critical Dependency: Derek commits YES within 24 hours and executes consistently.
Why This Wins: Lowest execution risk (Jason most reliable), same speed as Path 1, no Derek dependency, highest autonomy.
Trade-Off: Slightly lower leverage (8 vs 9) without Derek's sales superpower.
Why This Works: Most autonomous (no Derek), self-proving methodology, creates repeatable portfolio, can build Fast Track infrastructure.
Trade-Off: Slower to revenue (14-21 days), unproven Reddit distribution, one-time sales vs recurring.
Why NOT February: 84-133 day timeline (vs 7 days), highest risk (7/10), Athio dependency (40% chance doesn't close), $0 revenue for 3+ months.
When to Execute: Q2 2026 after Path 1/2 cash flowing + Athio closes. Fast Track members become first Expert OS prospects.
| Factor | Path 1 | Path 2 | Path 3 | Path 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch Date | Feb 17 | Feb 17 | Feb 23 | May-June |
| Critical Owner | Derek | Jason | Jason | Derek/Team |
| Pre-Launch Effort | 17 hrs (3 people) | 18 hrs (3 people) | 36 hrs (3 people) | 200 hrs (4 people) |
| Main Blocker | Derek execution | Jason time | Framework completion | Athio closes |
| Distribution Channel | Derek LinkedIn (proven) | Derek LinkedIn | Reddit (unproven) | Derek outreach |
| Revenue Model | MRR (recurring) | MRR (recurring) | One-time + refunds | Pay-to-play + JV |
| Pricing | $997-1,997 | $997-1,997 | $299 PWYW | $5-15K |
| First Customer | Week 1 | Week 1 | Week 2-3 | Week 16-20 |
| JV Pipeline Created | Yes (3-5 candidates) | Yes (3-5 candidates) | Maybe (if good fit) | Yes (2-4 partners) |
| Feeds Other Paths | Feeds Path 4 (Q2) | Feeds Path 4 (Q2) | Can build Path 1/2 | Standalone |
| Failure Signal Week 4 | <50% attendance | <50% attendance | <5 sales | N/A (not launched) |
| Pivot Option if Fails | → Path 2 or 3 | → Path 3 | → Path 1/2 | N/A |
Execute Path 1 (Derek-Led Fast Track) IF Derek says YES within 24 hours.
Otherwise execute Path 2 (Jason-Led Fast Track) immediately.
Path 3 available as pivot if Fast Track fails Week 4.
Path 4 deferred to Q2 2026 (April-June) after cash flow established.
Reasoning: Paths 1 & 2 are tied on overall score (29/40) but Path 1 has higher leverage IF Derek commits. Path 2 has lower risk if Derek won't commit. Both are vastly superior to Paths 3 & 4 for February execution (7 days vs 14-133 days to revenue).
| Derek's Answer | Execute Path | Why | First Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| YES (by Feb 10, 5pm) |
Path 1 Derek-Led |
Highest leverage (9/10), Derek's sales + network, fastest validation | Derek posts LinkedIn Feb 13 |
| NO but I'll support (distribution + sales) |
Path 2 Jason-Led |
Lowest risk (3/10), same speed, no Derek delivery dependency | Jason builds curriculum Feb 12 |
| NO entirely (not interested) |
Path 3 Sprint |
Most autonomous (9/10), self-proving, can build Fast Track after | Jason starts framework Feb 10 |
| MAYBE (need to think) |
Treat as NO → Path 2 |
No "maybe" allowed - forces clarity, don't wait for decision | Execute Path 2 immediately |