📊 Revenue Path Decision Tree
The Forcing Question
"Derek, will you run Fast Track weekly calls starting Monday, February 17?"
Required Answer: YES or NO (no "maybe")
Deadline: Tomorrow (Feb 10) 5pm
ROOT DECISION
Derek's Answer: Will you run Fast Track?
This single decision determines which path we execute. No "maybe" allowed - forces clarity.
↓
Path 1: Derek-Led Fast Track
Leverage: 9/10
Speed: 7 days
Risk: 4/10
Why This Works:
- Derek's proven sales ability + Jason's frameworks
- Derek's network access (direct, not recruited)
- Athio brand positioning (established credibility)
- Forces Derek to overcome public speaking fear
CRITICAL DEPENDENCIES:
• Derek posts LinkedIn by Feb 13
• Derek closes 3-5 members by Feb 16
• Derek shows up Feb 17 launch
• Jason provides curriculum backup
Path 2: Jason-Led Fast Track
Leverage: 8/10
Speed: 7 days
Risk: 3/10
Why This Works:
- Jason's reliability (lowest execution risk)
- No Derek delivery dependency
- Derek handles distribution + sales (lower effort)
- Jason builds teaching capability for Expert OS
CRITICAL DEPENDENCIES:
• Jason commits Mondays 12-1pm (12 weeks)
• Derek handles LinkedIn + guest curation
• Jason builds curriculum by Feb 12
• Derek closes members by Feb 16
Path 3: 14-Day Sprint
Leverage: 7/10
Speed: 14 days
Risk: 5/10
Why This Works:
- Most autonomous (no Derek dependency)
- Self-proving (if can't ship in 14 days, framework fails)
- Creates repeatable product portfolio
- Can use Sprint to BUILD Fast Track (meta-proving)
CRITICAL DEPENDENCIES:
• Jason completes framework by Feb 13 (15 hrs)
• Jason builds HC playbook by Feb 16 (10 hrs)
• Will validates Reddit distribution NOW
• Ships Feb 23 (Day 14 - cannot slip)
↓
Expert Clone Showcase - Defer to Q2 2026
Leverage: 8/10
Speed: 84+ days
Risk: 7/10
WHY NOT FEBRUARY:
• Brad work PAUSED until Athio closes (timeline unknown)
• Athio funnel 3+ weeks overdue (40% probability doesn't close by March 15)
• 84-133 day timeline vs 7 days for Path 1/2
• High execution risk (7/10) vs low risk (3-4/10) for similar revenue
• Could run Path 1 + Path 3 simultaneously in same timeframe
WHEN TO REVISIT:
• Execute Path 1 or 2 in February (revenue + validation)
• Derek completes Athio in parallel (no pressure)
• Resume Brad work in April (after Athio closes + Fast Track cash flowing)
• Launch Expert Showcase Q2 with Fast Track members as first prospects
Comparative Analysis
| Dimension |
Path 1
(Derek-Led) |
Path 2
(Jason-Led) |
Path 3
(Sprint) |
Path 4
(Q2 Defer) |
| Speed to First $ |
7 days |
7 days |
14-21 days |
84-133 days |
| Leverage Score |
9/10 |
8/10 |
7/10 |
8/10 |
| Execution Risk |
4/10 |
3/10 (lowest) |
5/10 |
7/10 (highest) |
| Autonomy |
7/10 |
9/10 |
9/10 |
3/10 |
| Week 1 Revenue |
$3-5K |
$3-5K |
$0 |
$0 |
| Month 1 Revenue |
$10-15K |
$10-15K |
$5-15K |
$0 |
| Critical Dependency |
Derek execution |
Jason time |
Jason time |
Athio closes |
| Launch Date |
Feb 17 |
Feb 17 |
Feb 23 |
May-June |
Recommendation Logic
PRIMARY: Path 1 (Derek-Led Fast Track)
IF AND ONLY IF: Derek says YES within 24 hours (by Feb 10, 5pm)
Why:
- Highest leverage (9/10) - Derek's sales + network + Jason's content
- Fastest monetization (7 days to first dollar)
- Proves core hypothesis (can we monetize productization coaching?)
- Creates JV pipeline (top members → Expert #3-5)
- Derek overcomes fear through repetition (builds capability)
Trade-offs Accepted: Higher execution risk (Derek pattern) BUT mitigated by Jason backup
SECONDARY: Path 2 (Jason-Led Fast Track)
IF: Derek says NO or doesn't post LinkedIn by Feb 13
Why:
- Lowest risk (3/10) - Jason most reliable executor
- Same speed (7 days)
- No Derek dependency (can start immediately)
- Jason builds teaching muscle (future Expert OS capability)
Trade-offs Accepted: Slightly lower leverage (8 vs 9) without Derek's sales superpower
TERTIARY: Path 3 (14-Day Sprint)
IF: Derek declines Fast Track entirely OR Fast Track fails Week 4
Why:
- Most autonomous (9/10) - least dependencies
- Self-proving methodology (validates forcing function)
- Can use Sprint to BUILD Fast Track (sequential strategy)
- Tests Reddit distribution before committing resources
Trade-offs Accepted: Slower to revenue (14-21 days), unproven distribution
NOT RECOMMENDED: Path 4 (Expert Showcase)
Defer to Q2 2026 (April-June)
Why NOT February:
- 84-133 days vs 7 days (12-week opportunity cost)
- Highest risk (7/10) - Athio gate, infrastructure dependencies
- $0 revenue Feb-May vs $42-70K revenue from Path 1/2
- Path 1/2 FEEDS Path 4 (creates JV pipeline) - do them sequentially
Next Steps
Immediate Action (Today - Feb 9)
- Present decision tree in meeting (this document)
- Force Derek's decision: "Will you run Fast Track, yes or no?"
- Execute decision branch based on Derek's answer
- Assign owners + deadlines from chosen path
- Document decision + rationale
Tomorrow (Feb 10)
- Derek's deadline: YES or NO by 5pm (no extensions)
- If YES: Execute Path 1 dependency table
- If NO but support: Execute Path 2 dependency table
- If NO entirely: Execute Path 3 dependency table
- First action item completes within 48 hours (forcing function)